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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-22T08:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38502/-1
CME Note: Two heavily overlapping flux rope CMEs from the same source seen to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is two instances of significant dimming and opening field lines seen from the same location, AR 4065 (S31E10), starting at 2025-04-22T06:37Z then at 2025-04-22T07:24Z. There appears to be southern deflection in the UV imagery. Post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2025-04-22T08:13Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-24T06:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-24T20:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:22/1115 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 1290
Longitude (deg): W04
Latitude (deg): S38
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes:

Lead Time: 31.67 hour(s)
Difference: -13.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2025-04-22T22:30Z

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